[tomking]

Originally Posted by traytodd I have seen some positive news in the oil industry lately. Construction is planned for about about 500,00 bbl/d increase in US distillation capacity. This is mostly expansion and debottlenecking of existing refineries. It will take about 5 years to bring all of this online. It is not enough. Also, the voters in one SE South Dakota county approved siting a new refinery. Of course the NIMBYs promise to block it by all available means. Most of the new capacity is for heavy crude such as that coming from the Canadian Tar Sands. Canada is ramping up production of the tar sands so refineries in the northern tier states could be built to accept it. Applications for drilling permits and to reopen capped wells in the LA basin have increased. Some of the drilling applications are for slant drilling into the off shore deposits. The recent run up of crude price from $120 to near $140 is purely speculation. The announcements from the brokarage houses of $150 to $200 oil is to sucker people into oil futures. When the price is high enough, then the bubble will burst leaving the suckers with the losses. Its the .com, telecom, housing scenerio all over again. If the Warner-Lieberman cap and trade bill passes, it will put a strong damper in oil refining and production and will increase the cost of fuel over the next few years. Increased revenues by the majors, can result in increased domestic production if the courts and Congress permit it. Congress needs to immediately open up more drilling sites so we can become more self reliant. They could also permit closed but contaminated military bases to become refineries. I am afraid that nothing will happen this year because of the election cycle, and then we have a 50-50 or greater chance of the wrong things being done. Terry

Well said and Right On.