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Just Some Dude in Jersey
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
As I type this the NBA cancelled the season overnight and college basketball is going audienceless, plus Europeans can't fly here. The Virus is now a big deal where I live: The dense Northeast. In my immediate vicinity, I'm expecting the social gathering scene, at least those attended by older people, to be decimated. Every event around here normally gets mobbed and that's just the sort of thing that medical authorities want to prevent.

I could see most of the car shows being cancelled. Many of them are held as part of a huge town fair. I can choose from 3 different car shows within 50 miles of me every Saturday and every Sunday, from May till November. And there's Cruises during the week in the evenings. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Carlisle car shows might get cancelled. There's lots of old guys with old cars at car shows and lots of kids with gooey fingers touching all the cars(Yuk! Yuk!).

Your thoughts?
 

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Super Moderator
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This whole virus thing really sucks but at the same time, I guess I can see where being overly cautious is probably a good thing, especially for us "older" guys! I'm expecting to hear something from the AutoFair officials soon one way or the other.

Better be safe than sorry...
 
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RunOpel
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I would tend to agree with you Roy, this virus thing does suck. I suppose its always better to way on the cautious side verses doing nothing and have bad things happen. But really, does it seem that the world has gone crazy? The Costco where I live ran out of water and toilet paper. Whats up with that??? I wasn't aware that water and toilet paper will have any affect on the virus. Nearly 40,000 people die in the United States (not global) from the result of a motor vehicle collision. That's about every 13 minutes someone dies in the US, again not global. So why are we not going crazy about vehicles. Maybe we should stop driving???

As far as the car shows, if things don't quiet down (virus slows) were all probably going to see many of our favorite car shows canceled :( I for one will not be stopped from working and driving my Opel GT due to this current virus outbreak.

Hope all of my fellow Opeler's will stay healthy and avoid getting this virus.
 

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Just Some Dude in Jersey
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Discussion Starter #4
The Costco where I live ran out of water and toilet paper. Whats up with that??? I wasn't aware that water and toilet paper will have any affect on the virus.
Yeah, I don't get the thing with the toilet paper and the water. I've been drinking from the hose and schitting in the shower for years. I don't spend a penny on that stuff.

:ROFLMAO:
 

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RunOpel
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Oh Gordo, when I need a laugh I can certainly count on you :) :) :)
 

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When a new infectuous disease arrives, generally 1 of 2 things will happen:

1 - There is a quick response, those infected are tested, isolated, and, either live or die, but the spread is stopped.

2 - There is a slow response, and there is no hope of stopping the spread, only managing the consequences.

Option 1 is no longer an option. A few infections with a lackadasical response means many cases and now quarantine isn't going to work. It's now a pandemic.

This virus is particularly well suited to being a pandemic because it's moderately transmissible, but asymptomatic while doing so. While fatal, it's only moderately fatal, so there are high numbers of hosts ensuring it will spread.

Basically, everyone is going to catch this, and, 2% of the world is going to die from it. For those of you 45 and under, 1 in 500 of you will die from it. For those 70+ years old (lots of you here), it will kill 1 in 5 of you. 1 in 7 in a great health care system.

The challenge now is 2-fold:

First, get a vaccine. That's 1-2 years away. Maybe AI can accelerate this. Then you can get ahead of the disease and stop its spread. This will likely be too late. It's unlikely that any preventative measures can slow the spread for a long enough time that a vaccine is going to help the general populace, people can't isolate for 2 years. Anyone who was going to die from it probably will have died by then.

Second, try to slow the rate at which it spreads.

The reason that slowing the rate of spread matters now isn't much to do with the virus. It's going to hit everyone before there's a cure. Everyone who's going to die from it is going to die from it. But in the meantime, dealing with a massive rush of cases and heavy hospital stays (several weeks) means that we have a medical load 100-1000x what the hospitals can handle and any health issues we already have are going to suffer from lack of treatment. There are not enough beds, operating rooms, or staff to handle this. Break your arm? No staff to treat it. Cancer? No staff. Just, 1% of the resources available to deal with anything. So even though it's going to kill 2% of the population, it's a matter of, how many others die from lack of treatment from the baseline (normal) medical load.

Sadly, there might not be a way in a non-authoritarian government to slow the spread.

With how spread it already is, there doesn't seem to be a way of locking down the infection (especially with carriers being asymptomic but contagious for almost a week). Looking like it's going to be pretty crippling to society in a few months.
 

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I guess I am just too old to be afraid...we all go sooner or later...To be cautious is good but this mass hysteria is getting out of hand... like the toilet paper shortage...idiots... I will not be part of the terrorized group...Car shows are outside and not contained...plus where I live has not been affected..so I doubt there is much chance of getting the pox... I refuse to join in the histeria.
 

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Opeler
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Just received nice voltage tester from China. My wife says that I should stop ordering stuff from China. But if I stop, I will not have a pleasure of reading their English translation. :)
425319
 

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Regarding the virus, as of this morning the death rate of coronavirus patients in the US is around 2.7% (1300 confirmed cases with 36 deaths). The majority of deaths were in Washington where two nursing homes with frail elderly were infected. Flu has a rate of around 2%, some years higher than others depending on the particular strain that goes around. This is from the raw numbers that are being made available to date. So it makes sense to be vigilant but this panic seems to be manufactured.
 

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UngerDog
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I live in the greater bay area of San Francisco, one of the hotspots for the spread of Covid-19. It's all about Covid-19 here. We are seeing closers of schools, sporting events, concerts, conventions, and I've been notified that only essential visitors should be allowed to come to the senior housing facility where my mom lives. I work at the local fairgrounds where there are year round events, including the Good Guys auto shows and the county fair which has live horse racing. The Good Guys show for later this month has not announced whether it will take place or not yet. I don't think it will take place. As far as horse racing events, I would expect that events like these with masses of people yelling and/or cursing spewing body fluids in close proximity of others would be canceled as well. All the part time workers at these events will take a significant hit in earnings. And, I wouldn't be surprised if Covid-19 impacts the off track betting sites. I would also expect to see hotels, casinos, and all travel destinations to see a huge decrease in visitors.
 

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Vendor
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Regarding the virus, as of this morning the death rate of coronavirus patients in the US is around 2.7% (1300 confirmed cases with 36 deaths). The majority of deaths were in Washington where two nursing homes with frail elderly were infected. Flu has a rate of around 2%, some years higher than others depending on the particular strain that goes around. This is from the raw numbers that are being made available to date. So it makes sense to be vigilant but this panic seems to be manufactured.
Mortality rate with seasonal flu is usually <0.1%, and of course there is a somewhat effective vaccine available. I'm not saying that people should panic, but it is good to understand the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them.
No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences
 

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My Mom had ten brother and sisters. Three of them were gone by age 3 from diphtheria or scarlet fever. So we need to be smart about how we live for a while. My wife went shopping for general food stuff and she said it was weird. Men roaming ails looking for rubbing alcohol which is sold out everywhere. Carts full of canned goods. I had a meeting cancelled today that was going to be held at a local utility office. Corporate put a halt to all outside visitors.
 

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UngerDog
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The message that I'm getting is that there is a crisis but to remain calm. Harvard epidemiology professor, Marc Lipsitch, predicts that Covid-19 will infect 40-70% of the world population within this coming year. With a rate of 2%, Covid-19 is close to 200 times more deadly than the seasonal flu death rate of around 0.1%. But, I'm still more likely to get a pop-up message while on this site saying that a virus has infected and corrupted my computer. That's happen 3 times in the last hour. So, I hope that my computer hasn't infected your computer.
 

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Mortality rate with seasonal flu is usually <0.1%, and of course there is a somewhat effective vaccine available. I'm not saying that people should panic, but it is good to understand the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them.
No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences
Mea Culpa, apparently you can't believe everything you read on the internet. Some researchers are saying the mortality rate may end up being like a bad flu, others are saying higher, I guess it's still too early. One thing is for sure, for older folks this virus is bad news.
 

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Just Some Dude in Jersey
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Discussion Starter #17
The paranoid-schizophrenic, obsessive-complusive, girl that operates my machine at the Post Office a couple of days a week was near me today when I noticed that her hands were bright screaming red. "Sue, have you been washing your hands at home excessively?"(I KNOW she doesn't go anywhere and just stays home all the time obsessing and compulsing all over everything) "Yeah, but only if I touch something." "Sue, you're in your own house. Your couch and TV remote couldn't possibly have the virus." "I know, but they say to wash your hands and......(sub-audible jibber-jabber for the next 10 minutes)" "Sue, are you using a hand cleaner with 70% alcohol? Y'know, you can't wash your hands 30 times a day with 70% alcohol, it'll dry out your skin and it will fall off and you'll just have bare finger bones." "I know, but......(more sub-audible jibber-jabber for another 10 minutes). Sue is weird.
 

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Just Some Dude in Jersey
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Discussion Starter #18
One more thing: If ANY Postal Worker working in one of our processing plants comes down with the virus, the poo will hit the fan. They will close that plant in a heartbeat and put it's entire workforce in quarantine or the entire workforce will refuse to come to work. There's 500,000 postal workers. The average age of a Postal Worker is 55. If one plant closes, they might close them all.
 

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So it makes sense to be vigilant but this panic seems to be manufactured.
If anything, the coverage has undersold the seriousness.

It's the kind of thing that is typically under-reacted to, because people intuitively think "I will solve this problem when it becomes a problem", and to them that is a rational response. But, counter-intuitively, that is not an effective methodology for a pandemic.

There's a quaint little parable about bacteria growth that goes like this:
- There's bacteria in a colony.
- The bacteria double in size every day.
- Eventually after 100 days, the bacteria will fill every available space, run our of resources, and poison themselves.
- When should the bacteria start planning?

Even at day 99, the bacteria are only using 50% of their resources. "There's no reason to panic! We have lots of room!"
Even at day 99 and 23 hours, it's only starting to feel like things aren't in surplus.
At day 99, 23 hours, 59 minutes the symptoms of running out of resources start appearing.
But by that point, they only have 1 minute left to solve that problem.

Well bacteria don't solve problems, but Humans aren't much better. Humans fail to intuitively grasp exponential growth. We just seem to think linearly. It shows up all the time as even very smart people, or whole societies thereof, acting on instinct and intuition, aren't just a little bit wrong, they're wrong by a magnitude of 1000x.

The pathway to pandemic is the same each time. We have even seen it this time in many cases, and people keep making the same wrong choices. They think "We won't take strong action until it starts looking like a problem". But "starts looking like a problem" is that 99d23h59m time for us. You can observe that other countries have done this and it ending in disaster, and yet with the exact same symptoms at the same progression rate, people still feel "I'll wait and see, no reason to worry yet."

Or for a more simple parable: Rabies. The survival rate for Rabies once any symptom starts to show, is zero. Zero. Maybe 1 or 2 people that "survived" by being put into a coma as an experiment, and "only" have severe brain damage. Literally every other person who has ever caught Rabies and waited for a symptom to show before going to the doctor, died. You must act before symptoms. A pandemic is like Rabies at a societal level.

Actual panic doesn't help anyone. Most places shrugged and now it looks like it's too late to solve things, even though we, like bacteria "Haven't run out of room" quite yet.

Stupid panic, like hoarding toilet paper and bottle water instead of like... food, is just stupid people being stupid.

Mea Culpa, apparently you can't believe everything you read on the internet. Some researchers are saying the mortality rate may end up being like a bad flu, others are saying higher, I guess it's still too early.
The World Health Organization is pretty adament that it's a pandemic now. They're not exactly blogger moms writing their opinions about crafts. It's the global medical thinktank. There isn't a higher or more reputable source.

It's not too early to tell. There's tens of thousands of datapoints.


[quote="ungermm]With a rate of 2%, Covid-19 is close to 200 times more deadly than the seasonal flu death rate of around 0.1%. [/quote]

I think you meant 20x. Not 200x.

...

Gordo - How do you feel about selling your stocks last week? :p
 

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My wife has a thing about toilet paper. She never wants to run out. I'd post a picture of her stockpile but I'm afraid of the onslaught when everyone else's runs out. You really wouldn't mind running out of toilet paper?
 
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