This whole virus thing really sucks but at the same time, I guess I can see where being overly cautious is probably a good thing, especially for us "older" guys! I'm expecting to hear something from the AutoFair officials soon one way or the other.

Better be safe than sorry...

 

I would tend to agree with you Roy, this virus thing does suck. I suppose its always better to way on the cautious side verses doing nothing and have bad things happen. But really, does it seem that the world has gone crazy? The Costco where I live ran out of water and toilet paper. Whats up with that??? I wasn't aware that water and toilet paper will have any affect on the virus. Nearly 40,000 people die in the United States (not global) from the result of a motor vehicle collision. That's about every 13 minutes someone dies in the US, again not global. So why are we not going crazy about vehicles. Maybe we should stop driving???

As far as the car shows, if things don't quiet down (virus slows) were all probably going to see many of our favorite car shows canceled I for one will not be stopped from working and driving my Opel GT due to this current virus outbreak.

Hope all of my fellow Opeler's will stay healthy and avoid getting this virus.

 

The Costco where I live ran out of water and toilet paper. Whats up with that??? I wasn't aware that water and toilet paper will have any affect on the virus.

Yeah, I don't get the thing with the toilet paper and the water. I've been drinking from the hose and schitting in the shower for years. I don't spend a penny on that stuff.

 

Oh Gordo, when I need a laugh I can certainly count on you

 

It won't last forever. Time to work on home projects.

 

When a new infectuous disease arrives, generally 1 of 2 things will happen:

1 - There is a quick response, those infected are tested, isolated, and, either live or die, but the spread is stopped.

2 - There is a slow response, and there is no hope of stopping the spread, only managing the consequences.

Option 1 is no longer an option. A few infections with a lackadasical response means many cases and now quarantine isn't going to work. It's now a pandemic.

This virus is particularly well suited to being a pandemic because it's moderately transmissible, but asymptomatic while doing so. While fatal, it's only moderately fatal, so there are high numbers of hosts ensuring it will spread.

Basically, everyone is going to catch this, and, 2% of the world is going to die from it. For those of you 45 and under, 1 in 500 of you will die from it. For those 70+ years old (lots of you here), it will kill 1 in 5 of you. 1 in 7 in a great health care system.

The challenge now is 2-fold:

First, get a vaccine. That's 1-2 years away. Maybe AI can accelerate this. Then you can get ahead of the disease and stop its spread. This will likely be too late. It's unlikely that any preventative measures can slow the spread for a long enough time that a vaccine is going to help the general populace, people can't isolate for 2 years. Anyone who was going to die from it probably will have died by then.

Second, try to slow the rate at which it spreads.

The reason that slowing the rate of spread matters now isn't much to do with the virus. It's going to hit everyone before there's a cure. Everyone who's going to die from it is going to die from it. But in the meantime, dealing with a massive rush of cases and heavy hospital stays (several weeks) means that we have a medical load 100-1000x what the hospitals can handle and any health issues we already have are going to suffer from lack of treatment. There are not enough beds, operating rooms, or staff to handle this. Break your arm? No staff to treat it. Cancer? No staff. Just, 1% of the resources available to deal with anything. So even though it's going to kill 2% of the population, it's a matter of, how many others die from lack of treatment from the baseline (normal) medical load.

Sadly, there might not be a way in a non-authoritarian government to slow the spread.

With how spread it already is, there doesn't seem to be a way of locking down the infection (especially with carriers being asymptomic but contagious for almost a week). Looking like it's going to be pretty crippling to society in a few months.

 

I guess I am just too old to be afraid...we all go sooner or later...To be cautious is good but this mass hysteria is getting out of hand... like the toilet paper shortage...idiots... I will not be part of the terrorized group...Car shows are outside and not contained...plus where I live has not been affected..so I doubt there is much chance of getting the pox... I refuse to join in the histeria.

 

Just received nice voltage tester from China. My wife says that I should stop ordering stuff from China. But if I stop, I will not have a pleasure of reading their English translation.

 

Transport aircraft, such as bulldozers. Or flying motorcycles

 

Regarding the virus, as of this morning the death rate of coronavirus patients in the US is around 2.7% (1300 confirmed cases with 36 deaths). The majority of deaths were in Washington where two nursing homes with frail elderly were infected. Flu has a rate of around 2%, some years higher than others depending on the particular strain that goes around. This is from the raw numbers that are being made available to date. So it makes sense to be vigilant but this panic seems to be manufactured.

 

Mortality rate with seasonal flu is usually <0.1%, and of course there is a somewhat effective vaccine available. I'm not saying that people should panic, but it is good to understand the risks, and do what you can to mitigate them.
No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences

 

I live in the greater bay area of San Francisco, one of the hotspots for the spread of Covid-19. It's all about Covid-19 here. We are seeing closers of schools, sporting events, concerts, conventions, and I've been notified that only essential visitors should be allowed to come to the senior housing facility where my mom lives. I work at the local fairgrounds where there are year round events, including the Good Guys auto shows and the county fair which has live horse racing. The Good Guys show for later this month has not announced whether it will take place or not yet. I don't think it will take place. As far as horse racing events, I would expect that events like these with masses of people yelling and/or cursing spewing body fluids in close proximity of others would be canceled as well. All the part time workers at these events will take a significant hit in earnings. And, I wouldn't be surprised if Covid-19 impacts the off track betting sites. I would also expect to see hotels, casinos, and all travel destinations to see a huge decrease in visitors.

 

My Mom had ten brother and sisters. Three of them were gone by age 3 from diphtheria or scarlet fever. So we need to be smart about how we live for a while. My wife went shopping for general food stuff and she said it was weird. Men roaming ails looking for rubbing alcohol which is sold out everywhere. Carts full of canned goods. I had a meeting cancelled today that was going to be held at a local utility office. Corporate put a halt to all outside visitors.

 

The message that I'm getting is that there is a crisis but to remain calm. Harvard epidemiology professor, Marc Lipsitch, predicts that Covid-19 will infect 40-70% of the world population within this coming year. With a rate of 2%, Covid-19 is close to 200 times more deadly than the seasonal flu death rate of around 0.1%. But, I'm still more likely to get a pop-up message while on this site saying that a virus has infected and corrupted my computer. That's happen 3 times in the last hour. So, I hope that my computer hasn't infected your computer.

 

The paranoid-schizophrenic, obsessive-complusive, girl that operates my machine at the Post Office a couple of days a week was near me today when I noticed that her hands were bright screaming red. "Sue, have you been washing your hands at home excessively?"(I KNOW she doesn't go anywhere and just stays home all the time obsessing and compulsing all over everything) "Yeah, but only if I touch something." "Sue, you're in your own house. Your couch and TV remote couldn't possibly have the virus." "I know, but they say to wash your hands and......(sub-audible jibber-jabber for the next 10 minutes)" "Sue, are you using a hand cleaner with 70% alcohol? Y'know, you can't wash your hands 30 times a day with 70% alcohol, it'll dry out your skin and it will fall off and you'll just have bare finger bones." "I know, but......(more sub-audible jibber-jabber for another 10 minutes). Sue is weird.

 

One more thing: If ANY Postal Worker working in one of our processing plants comes down with the virus, the poo will hit the fan. They will close that plant in a heartbeat and put it's entire workforce in quarantine or the entire workforce will refuse to come to work. There's 500,000 postal workers. The average age of a Postal Worker is 55. If one plant closes, they might close them all.

 

My wife has a thing about toilet paper. She never wants to run out. I'd post a picture of her stockpile but I'm afraid of the onslaught when everyone else's runs out. You really wouldn't mind running out of toilet paper?

 

I guess we have that to look forward to. C'Mon Man. Lets all just go out to the garage and work on the Opels over a beer.???

 

We buy most supplies at Costco. Given the large quantities that stuff comes in there we always seem to be hoarding.

 

I suppose it will have an effect on car shows. The two hotels I worked at today were less than 20% full used to being above 80% with group cancellations extending into September. Housekeepers out of work and the maintenance guy shutting power off to six floors not being used. That was the reality that hit home today. I have to admit I was somewhat oblivious until now

 

Just start drinking some corona. If you're gonna die from this virus, you might as well die happy.

Personally, I doubt we'll see even 40% of the US population get this. Is it serious? You bet. But if 40% of the population got this, the US has 108.7 million adults 50 and older. source If 40% of that group got the virus (43.5 million), then 2% (more or less the current mortality rate) of that group would be ~870,000 people who died. Literally, it would become more deadly than the entire Civil War. The best stock pick would become funeral homes and the best real estate purchase would be cemeteries. It would be a reckoning that would shape US history for the next 100 years, or more.

If that's the reality we're facing, you don't need more toilet paper. You need to go buy more guns and ammo.

 

But if 40% of the population got this, the US has 108.7 million adults 50 and older. source If 40% of that group got the virus (43.5 million), then 2% (more or less the current mortality rate) of that group would be ~870,000 people who died.

Oh, no, it's much worse. The 2% is an average across all age groups. The average for older people is exponentially higher.

What percentage is older than 60? Because that's where the graph spikes. 70 million americans are 60 or older.

Below age 50, it's 0.3% fatal.
In your 50s, 0.8%. Still not bad. After that though, it's brutal.
60s? 10%
70s? 32%
80s? 57%

And that's IF the hospitals have room for you like they currently do. In Italy, they're choosing which people get unplugged from their ventilators to give others a chance. So people who are probably savable are dying anyways because of the lack of medical resources.

If that's the reality we're facing, you don't need more toilet paper. You need to go buy more guns and ammo.

Ridiculous. What are guns and ammo going to do?

2% of the population is going to die. Most of them, retired. The workforce is still a workforce. Food is still going to be available.

I know someone that's symptomatic, called the doctor like the CDC said, and the doctor said they aren't testing.
A local hospital confessed that they are allowed to run 80 tests a day. No more than that. So, nobody is really being tested.

The US tested 50 people TOTAL Monday-Wednesday. Just pure idiotic response from the US. Of all the developed nations in the world, the US is by far, by an order of magnitude or two, having the worst response to this.

Secondly, humans aren't endangered. Yes, it sucks to have someone you know die. We will all have someone we know die of something.

I don't get this logic, though I see it a lot.

Then why do you bother looking both ways before crossing the street? Why do you bother stopping at stop signs? Why do you bother to wear a condom when you're bangin' an AIDS patient? Why not share needles with an Ebola patient?

Yeah, those things happen, but, do you want them to? Or would you rather it be something else, at a later time?

It seems this attitude is used to rationalize any behavior an individual feels like engaging in.

Third, destroying the freedom and economy of the world to keep us safe from this virus is not going to do anyone any good in the long run.

So, you would recommend not taking the consensus advice of the best experts in the world, because you know better?

And I'm PISSED that the annual Portland Auto Swap Meets are cancelled for a bug that everyone is going to get anyway and (likely) over 99% of the people will survive.

Can't recall the last time I heard such a selfish comment from a person. I mean, you can be upset (it sucks that the show is cancelled sure), but you're upset at the decision to cancel the show?

There is literally a pandemic going on, sweeping the global population, and you're upset about a car show being cancelled? As if society has it's priorities wrong, and car shows should be above the health of the population in a global crisis?

I can't think of anything less important, and more trivial to give up, than a damned car show, when the lives of millions of people are in balance.

Yes, most people are going to get this, and most people are going to survive it. But if it all happens at once, it's going to be far, far, far worse. Worse deaths. Worse destruction. Worse economically.

It's a pandemic, it has exponential growth. Small sacrifices in public gatherings will have huge impact on the infection rates and society's ability to handle the medical and economic burden.

If you're big on Darwinism, let's just get rid of hospitals permanently. Who needs medical care, if it's going to happen it's going to happen.

 

REALITY CHECK

First off, the numbers we see aren't real numbers. The numbers are of fatalities of people TESTED. There are multiples of the people tested that aren't tested, get the virus, let it run it's course and they live. So the actual mortality rate is lower.
I know someone that's symptomatic, called the doctor like the CDC said, and the doctor said they aren't testing.
A local hospital confessed that they are allowed to run 80 tests a day. No more than that. So, nobody is really being tested.

Secondly, humans aren't endangered. Yes, it sucks to have someone you know die. We will all have someone we know die of something.

Third, destroying the freedom and economy of the world to keep us safe from this virus is not going to do anyone any good in the long run. Poverty kills people just like a virus does. It also makes people miserable, like a virus does. The difference is poverty is suffering for months and years instead of a couple weeks.

Part of me says that anyone worried should just crawl into their little bubble and watch the world go by. The other part says let's have the virus run it's course and let Darwinism take effect.

And I'm PISSED that the annual Portland Auto Swap Meets are cancelled for a bug that everyone is going to get anyway and (likely) over 99% of the people will survive.

 

Matt, I think you’re reading too far into this situation. If it really did get as bad as you describe with senior citizens, the reason why you need guns and ammo would be the mass hysteria. Society in America won’t handle mass portions of the elderly dying very well. It will make it seem like the end of days when millions of old people are dropping like flies.

I’ll admit if I end up being wrong but we’re not going to lose millions of Americans to this. Did we see millions die from H1N1? No. Was it a pandemic? Yes, over 700 million people got it around the world. But it only ended up with a mortality rate of 0.02%. This is still a very fluid situation. When the dust settles, this won’t be the Grimm Reaper of the elderly you try to make it out to be. I’ll admit it if I was wrong but I’m calling BS. The US still has very few cases of this and State governments are doing more than Trump has to fight this.

The real problem will be the economy. This is going to gut the world economy and the US is going to be back at 2008 by the time the dust settles. On the bright side, there will be a lot of money to be made in the recovery. Ford’s stock is going broke, pretty soon it will be a good time to invest in Ford.

 

The governor of New Hampshire just declared a state of emergency. Kind of ridiculous when there are only 50 confirmed cases in the state.

I just spoke with my stepson however, and the base he was supposed to continue his training in (he’s a Marine) was locked down for 60 days due to 16 confirmed cases. Nobody in/nobody out. So he is home for the forseeable future.

 

MODERATOR's NOTE: We are getting very close to crossing the acceptable line of NO POLITICS on this Forum. And maybe just more than a bit over it, as discussions on guns and politicians simply isn't allowed.

Further posts on those topics will be dealt with quickly and with prejudice.

 

I figure this weekend I can make enough money to fully restore mt GT.
I have 32 MEGA rolls of Charmin, Ultra strong. I'll sell them to the highest bidders.

For those who are worried about running out of TP, remember that you can conserve by using both sides.

This reminds me. I always like seeing Matt post. I enjoy reading his opinions... at least the 10% of the post I actually read.

 

For anyone interested in actually reading, instead of just watching news anchors interview people on the street and speculate wildly...

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

I'll highlight a few snippets.

Here's an important graph. It's historic and measured, not a prediction. It's actual data, of this outbreak, from China. The Blue is what is actually happening. The Orange is what has been detected as happening. Note that it's only when the first few cases of detection that start coming in (in the "Don't panic, look how few people have it! It's not a big deal!" denial stage), that action is taken (in this case, China responded viciously and successfully as only an authoritarian regime can), and the actual rate of infection slows.

"have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t? [...] All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials"

"This is what you can conclude:

- Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten."

Another thing, for serious cases, ventilators are needed. There are only 250 in the US. Best guess for spread is 96 million cases in the US. Of those, 1%, or 960,000 will need those ventilators. 250/960,000 = 1/4000 will actually get them. 3999 die per 1 survive on the available ventilator. Plus, that ventilator exists in the first place to help with the existing and expected medical load. Anyone who needed it for that is now going to die instead. So, functionally zero people who need one will have one.

"All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today."

"If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them."

"If the transmission rate goes down by 25% (through Social Distancing), it flattens the curve and delays the peak by a whole 14 weeks. Lower the transition rate by 50%, and you can’t see the epidemic even starting within a quarter."

And lastly... the importance of acting right now versus even just tomorrow, let alone not at all, is 40% difference in cases.

So... it's complicated. People's brains do not intuitively grasp the exponential function. Everyone instinctively just wants to wait and see, then act "if/when it's time", but "wait and see" only tells you "Oops, yep, a month ago was the best time", it's too late. That's why it's important for things like car shows (and other public gatherings) to be shut down and shut down now, not waiting to see if it gets worse. Pandemics are not linear. Do you want that black line, or that red one, or that green one?

For what it's worth, social isolation and no public gatherings has a decent chance of bankrupting me and many of my peers, (a huge portion of my income comes from events), and I still think it's the best thing to do. The alternative in unconscionable.

I’ll admit if I end up being wrong but we’re not going to lose millions of Americans to this.

It depends on the severity of the response, but it looks like that's going to be the ballpark regardless. I'd be thrilled to be wrong. I'm not a panicking type. But the data is there.

 

For anyone interested in actually reading, instead of just watching news anchors interview people on the street and speculate wildly...

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

I'll highlight a few snippets.

Here's an important graph. It's historic and measured, not a prediction. It's actual data, of this outbreak, from China. The Blue is what is actually happening. The Orange is what has been detected as happening. Note that it's only when the first few cases of detection that start coming in (in the "Don't panic, look how few people have it! It's not a big deal!" denial stage), that action is taken (in this case, China responded viciously and successfully as only an authoritarian regime can), and the actual rate of infection slows.

"have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t? [...] All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials"

"This is what you can conclude:

• Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten."

Another thing, for serious cases, ventilators are needed. There are only 250 in the US. Best guess for spread is 96 million cases in the US. Of those, 1%, or 960,000 will need those ventilators. 250/960,000 = 1/4000 will actually get them. 3999 die per 1 survive on the available ventilator. Plus, that ventilator exists in the first place to help with the existing and expected medical load. Anyone who needed it for that is now going to die instead. So, functionally zero people who need one will have one.

"All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today."

"If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them."

"If the transmission rate goes down by 25% (through Social Distancing), it flattens the curve and delays the peak by a whole 14 weeks. Lower the transition rate by 50%, and you can’t see the epidemic even starting within a quarter."

And lastly... the importance of acting right now versus even just tomorrow, let alone not at all, is 40% difference in cases.

So... it's complicated. People's brains do not intuitively grasp the exponential function. Everyone instinctively just wants to wait and see, then act "if/when it's time", but "wait and see" only tells you "Oops, yep, a month ago was the best time", it's too late. That's why it's important for things like car shows (and other public gatherings) to be shut down and shut down now, not waiting to see if it gets worse. Pandemics are not linear. Do you want that black line, or that red one, or that green one?

For what it's worth, social isolation and no public gatherings has a decent chance of bankrupting me and many of my peers, (a huge portion of my income comes from events), and I still think it's the best thing to do. The alternative in unconscionable.



It depends on the severity of the response, but it looks like that's going to be the ballpark regardless. I'd be thrilled to be wrong. I'm not a panicking type. But the data is there.

and your one of the guys buying all the toilet paper. The only people at risk to die from this are the sick and elderly. Stop spreading fear.

Karl

 

"Data is there"

Anyone who is an engineer knows that data can be easily manipulated, depending on how it is analyzed and that is assuming it's correct.

Let's start with the bit about the US only having 250 ventilators. That's incredibly wrong. Sure, we can't cover a million Americans but right now, we aren't anywhere close to using even 1% of how many ventilators are on hand in the US. As far as having enough right now, we're fine but this is an area of concern. It also helps to have actual data on how many we currently have. Your info, makes it seems like hospitals don't know what a ventilator is or why they would need a handful for use all the time at bare minimum.

"A February report from the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins revealed the US has about 160,000 ventilators ready for use in hospitals, with another 8,900 held in a national reserve. The report doesn't say how many are typically in use, but notes that demand could increase by at least 25% during an influenza pandemic."

Expert estimates reveal that US hospitals may run short on life-saving ventilators as the coronavirus outbreak ramps up

The US has about 170,000 ventilators, which could help keep very sick coronavirus patients alive. That may not be enough.

www.businessinsider.com

Getting back to the data, the US only has 1,629 confirmed cases right now. There could definitely be more that haven't been tested but hospitals are limited on how many tests they can run due to supply right now. How many have died? 41 as of 3/13. That's 2.5%, but there is a huge issue with this data. It's not nearly a big enough sample size for virology and too many people haven't been tested.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

Even if you look at the data from China, they haven't tested enough people. China has over a billion people, they haven't even come close to testing 1% of their population. If we really want to dive into preventative measures, you have to test everyone and quarantine anyone who is positive even if they aren't showing symptoms yet. That can be almost impossible to do in reality. So, we focus on people who are sick. Looking at China's data...

"China has seen 80,754 confirmed cases, 3,136 of whom have died"

Coronavirus: China says disease 'curbed' in Wuhan and Hubei

President Xi Jinping says the spread of the disease had been "basically curbed" in Hubei province.

www.bbc.com

That's roughly 3.9% mortality at the epicenter of the outbreak. Current data shows that China seems to be past the exponential growth with fewer new cases. China has over a billion people and this didn't manage to reach even 0.01% of their population. Yes, China's iron fisted management of the problem helped that. But, China is also far more densely populated in Wuhan and Hubei than in America. That made it very easy for the virus to spread.

What I'm getting at, is this. If the country where it started and with roughly 4 times as many people as the US didn't see even 10,000 people die, it's nuts to think that will happen here, let alone a million Americans which would dwarf China's fatality by a factor of roughly 100,000. For that to happen, State governments and the Fed government would have to do absolutely nothing to tackle this problem. Yes, we can do more but spreading a belief that millions will die in America because of covid-19 is 1, not actually backed by data and 2, only going to increase hysteria which doesn't help.

Matt, as kindly as I can say this, stop spreading unfounded fear and hysteria. It's good to be concerned, but right now you're screaming fire in an auditorium because of a lit candle. Let the medical professionals who actually know what they are doing be the source of information and how it should be interpreted with advice on how to proceed. Spreading unfounded fear isn't going to help anyone, stop blowing things vastly out of proportion.